Trump Suffered Only Modest Down-Ballot Losses

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Like every post-World War II president, Donald Trump witnessed a fall-off in his party’s numbers of U.S. Senate, U.S. House, gubernatorial, and state legislative seats during his presidency. That said, compared to recent presidents, the erosion on Trump’s watch was more modest than it was for his immediate predecessors.”

“One obvious difference is that Trump had only one term in office and escaped a ‘six-year-itch’ election. The only other postwar president to escape the down-ballot curse relatively unscathed was George H.W. Bush, who was the most recent president before Trump to be ousted after one term.”

“Another factor may be today’s heightened partisan polarization, which makes states and districts less “swingy” than they have been in the past.”