How Will Democrats Fare In 2022?

Jonathan Bernstein: “The key to 2022 is that it’s the first midterm after a party change in the White House — but one in which the incoming party had disappointing results in congressional races. The modern elections that might fit that definition would include the ones after the 1960, 1968, 1976, 1992, 2000 and 2016 contests. I’ll toss out 2000 and 2016, in which the presidential-election winner lost the popular vote, since those pose different challenges for the president’s party. I’ll also eliminate 1968, when President Richard Nixon’s Republicans gained ground in both chambers of Congress, but still fell way short of majorities. That, too, is different from what Biden and the Democrats are dealing with now.”

“So that leaves three midterms to look at: those after the elections of John Kennedy in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992. In all three of those election years, Democrats retained majorities in Congress, but lost some ground. And in each case, that probably made it harder to get much done.”

Stuart Rothenberg: Why comparing the 2022 midterm dynamics to 1966 is risky.