Two Scenarios for Biden

Jonathan Bernstein: “The positive scenario? Both the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the reconciliation bill — the whopping $3.5 trillion spending plan with programs to address health care, climate change, income inequality, immigration and traditional infrastructure (and more) — pass into law. Biden and the Democrats get credit for working with willing Republicans, which is nice, but also those two bills plus the earlier pandemic recovery act would constitute a major reordering of domestic policy.”

“And yet, it’s also plausible that the bipartisan infrastructure bill will never win 60 votes, that the $3.5 trillion spending plan proves too large to keep all 50 Senate Democrats on board, and that none of it passes. A worst-case scenario for Democrats doesn’t just keep the filibuster intact; it also would include a government shutdown or even a debt-limit crisis that fails to get resolved, derailing the economic recovery. In that chain of events, nothing gets passed on voting rights. Nothing gets passed on any of the Democratic agenda. And, after Republicans gain majorities in both chambers in the midterms, Biden is unable to get any judges or executive-branch officials confirmed.”