Will Voters Punish Democrats’ Legislative Ambitions?

Alex Samuels: “Touting ambitious bill packages hasn’t worked well for Democrats in the past. Back in 2010, the Affordable Care Act faced a similarly divided Democratic Party, and in fact, subsequent research suggests that the law hurt Democrats in that year’s midterms.”

“One 2012 study found that Democrats who voted in favor of the ACA saw their vote share drop by 8.5 percentage points, on average.”

“It’s also possible that voters will be turned off if the fight over passing the infrastructure and reconciliation bills drags on too long and is perceived as too complicated. Research has found that voters often punish — rather than reward — parties that move to achieve their policy goals.”