Jonathan Bernstein: “It’s true that the available Senate seats in 2024 will be extremely challenging for Democrats. There are no obvious pick-ups — no states that President Joe Biden won that are currently represented by a Republican — and several Democratic seats that will likely be very difficult to defend. One, Senator Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia, seems almost certain to flip to Republicans. If that happens, and Democrats need even one net seat to win a Senate majority, they would have to hold several other tough seats while finding two or more unlikely wins.”
“So yes, betting more than three years in advance, I wouldn’t take even odds that Democrats would win a new majority in 2024. But it’s one thing to assess the odds; it’s another to be too confident about the future. It’s not hard to come up with a few ways Democrats could win a seat or two.”
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