What Virginia Could Say About the Midterms

Harry Enten: “If the polls are to be believed, Republicans are going to do very well in Virginia given the political baseline in the state. Traditionally, this would foretell a strong Republican performance in next year’s midterms. In fact, given Virginia is more blue than the nation as a whole on the presidential level, a tie in this year’s gubernatorial election would essentially be in line with Republicans winning the national House vote by 5 points next year.”

“To be clear, McAuliffe can very much still win this race. The election is well within the margin of error… Still, the most likely outcome is a close margin between McAuliffe and Youngkin. That’s bad for Democrats given that President Joe Biden won the state by 10 points last year.”

Reuters: Virginia governor’s race could show the way for Republican congressional campaigns.