How Many Seats Could Republicans Win In 2022?

Karl Rove: “So how many House seats could the GOP pick up? Political scientist John Petrocik suggests Republicans should temper their expectations. Even with favorable redistricting, it’s unlikely the GOP will match its 2010 gain of 63 seats. There are only 44 House Democrats who won by 10 points or less—which likely means they’re vulnerable, given the shift toward Republicans in Virginia and New Jersey.”

“It helps that Republicans already gained 13 seats in 2020, one of only eight instances since World War II when the party losing the presidential race added House seats. Since 1945, the party in the White House has lost an average of 30 House seats in midterms. That means the GOP could be looking at getting over 230 after 2022 victories if they campaign intelligently. (A majority is 218.) But that’s an important ‘if.’”

“Even with the momentum the GOP has today, 2022 will test the mettle of Republican candidates and the quality of their messages. A surefire way for Republicans to lose otherwise winnable contests is to let them become referendums on Mr. Trump’s claim that he’s the real president.”