Amy Walter: “It feels safer to bet on unpredictability than stability in this era of tremendous political and social churn and upheaval. While we know that the midterm elections favor the ‘out’ party (i.e. the party that doesn’t control the White House), many wonder if history can be a reliable guide when it feels as if history is being rewritten on a daily basis?”
“After all, there’s plenty about 2022 that’s unique. It’s the first since 2002 that corresponds with redistricting; the first since at least 1998 that Democrats are not defending any Senate seats carried by the Republican presidential nominee two years earlier; and the first in memory where a defeated president is playing an outsized role.”
“Yet, there’s more this upcoming midterm has in common with its predecessors. Or, to paraphrase Mark Twain, history may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.”
Jonathan Last: “My guess is that Dems will lose at least 50 seats in the House. And then the Senate tips over, too. Though that’s less of a sure thing.”
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