Josh Barro: “Late last year, I said there was reason to think Democrats’ performance in the midterm elections might not be as weak as polls (and November 2021 election results) seemed to presage: The public was unhappy about Covid and the economy, but fundamentals relating both of those matters were likely to improve by the midterms, with lower inflation and less disruption to daily life.”
“Well, I no longer think fundamentals are likely to improve materially between now and the election.”
Catherine Rampell: “Just as it seemed as though the global economy and its tangled supply chains could be getting back to normal, three factors might supercharge inflation and/or raise the risk of recession… There’s never a good time for a downturn. But given all the other suffering and loss of life over the past few years, it’s hard to imagine a worse time than the present.”
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