The Best Hope for Democrats in the Midterms

Doug Sosnik: “The recent leak of a draft Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade is the Democrats best, and probably last, hope of changing the outcome of the 2022 midterm elections. If the Court’s impending decision doesn’t alter the current political dynamics, we will look back at the events between July and early November of last year as the period of time that determined the outcome of this election cycle.”

But the window is about to close: “In the last four midterm elections, by June the public had made up its mind about the leadership in Washington and how they were going to vote in November. According to Gallup, Trump’s 39% job approval in early February 2018, Obama’s 41% approval in June 2014 and 45% approval in June 2010, and Bush’s 38% approval in March 2006 all matched their job approval on Election Day.”

Each of those presidents “suffered significant defeats and lost control of at least one branch of Congress.”

“That is why the stakes are so high as we enter this final period critical for the Democrats to seize the pending Court decision on Roe vs Wade as a way to alter the trajectory of the election. If they are not successful in reframing the terms of debate for the midterm elections around the pending decision by the Supreme Court on Roe, we will look back at Biden and the Democrats’ failures last summer and early fall as the reasons for their electoral defeats this November.”