Polling Warning Signs Are Flashing Again

Nate Cohn: “Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated Mr. Biden in 2020 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016.”

David Leonhardt: “In each of these states — and some others — pollsters failed to reach a representative sample of voters. One factor seems to be that Republican voters are more skeptical of mainstream institutions and are less willing to respond to a survey. If that’s true, polls will often understate Republican support, until pollsters figure out how to fix the problem.”

“This possibility offers reason to wonder whether Democrats are really doing as well in the midterm elections as the conventional wisdom holds.”