The Special Election Shift

Aaron Blake: “The biggest development of the primary season might not have been the candidates who won, but the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade.”

“The court’s decision occasioned a sharp shift in how the parties performed in special elections. While Republicans were gaining ground and overperforming the fundamentals before Dobbs v. Jackson came down, Democrats have over-performed in every special election since then. They’ve beaten President Biden’s 2020 margins by an average of six points in the five races since late June.”