Jonathan Bernstein: “I’m also seeing a lot of assertions based on very limited data that the Senate majority will come down to a single state, usually Pennsylvania. In fact, there are still quite a few Senate seats — and far more House seats — whose outcomes are uncertain. The states won’t all necessarily move together; for example, Senate races in Georgia and Wisconsin could shift a few points toward the Republicans while Pennsylvania and Nevada shift in the opposite direction.”
“Sure, if the entire nation moved decisively in one direction over the last few weeks, then we could be relatively certain that the elections that appear closest right now will all go toward the candidates benefiting from that movement.”
“But don’t count on there being one overarching trend.”
