Spending Data Suggests GOP Holds Midterm Edge

Henry Olson: “Pundits have seized on close midterm polling suggesting that Democrats could conceivably retain at least one of their congressional majorities. But the behavior of the two parties points to a different conclusion: a Republican-leaning environment that’s slowly getting stronger…”

“Republicans are investing in races in the House and Senate that they should have no business winning in a neutral political environment. Meanwhile, Democrats in the House are spending to defend seats they have no business losing unless the terrain strongly favors Republicans. Either the parties don’t know what they’re doing, or their private data are telling them something at odds with the public data pundits analyze.”