Grassley Barely Leads In Iowa

A new Des Moines Register poll in Iowa shows Sen. Chuck Grassley’s (R) lead over Mike Franken (D) has narrowed to 3 percentage points, 46% to 43%, with less than a month until Election Day, signaling Grassley’s toughest reelection fight in 40 years.

Said pollster Ann Selzer: “It says to me that Franken is running a competent campaign and has a shot to defeat the seemingly invincible Chuck Grassley — previously perceived to be invincible.”

This would be a remarkable upset, but remember that all pollsters — even those well-regarded like Ann Selzer — can have outliers.