Democrats Outrunning Biden’s Approval Rate

Dan Guild: “Historically, in-power incumbents outperform the sitting president’s job approval. This trend is continuing in 2022, and the average of this outperformance is consistent with recent history. On average, Democratic Senate incumbents are running 6.4 percentage points ahead of Biden’s current approval rating.”

“Democrats in 4 open seats previously held by Republicans are currently outperforming President Biden’s job approval by 3.5%. This is the highest an in-party has exceeded the president’s approval rating since at least 2006.”

“There are obvious signs in the data that GOP candidate quality is hampering their candidates in a number of key Senate races.”