Refrain From Reading Much Into Early Voting Stats

Walter Shapiro: “In North Carolina, a perennial swing state with a tight Senate race this year, 135,400 people cast early ballots last Thursday. Statistics like this, which are released by many states, would seem to offer early insights into turnout patterns. But, in truth, interpreting early voting is about as difficult as solving Fermat’s Last Theorem in your head while using half-remembered high school algebra.”

“The problem with the avalanche of data is that most states have repeatedly changed their rules on early voting—especially in the past two years after the onset of the pandemic—making year-to-year comparisons virtually impossible. Also, parties have either encouraged early voting (the Democrats in 2018 and 2020) or developed conspiracy theories around it (Donald Trump in 2020).”

Said election analyst Sean Trende: “Because we don’t have a lengthy history of good research giving our brains guidance for how to interpret early returns, it’s very easy to see what you want to see.”