Jonathan Bernstein: “First, normal polling error could be more of a problem in this election because there are simply fewer polls in 2022 than there used to be. The less polling you have, the more unreliable the estimate will be…”
“Second, it is harder to do polling these days. Between the demise of landline phones and the ever-shrinking share of voters willing to talk to pollsters, the old way of doing things that persisted for some 50 years is pretty much gone…”
“A final challenge is the change in who votes and how. In the last several elections, we’ve had constant change in voting rules. Some states have made voting easier with automatic voter registration, relaxed rules for absentee voting and extended early voting. Other states have made it more difficult by reversing those policies. Republican voters, who until 2020 were more likely to use absentee ballots, are now much less likely to vote that way. All of this changes how likely different groups are to vote, but not necessarily in predictable ways.”
Earlier for members: We Won’t Know If Polls Are Broken Until After the Election
