What’s Concretely at Stake in the Midterms

Matthew Yglesias: “In general, I think the legislative difference between a narrowly Republican and a narrowly Democratic Senate would be very modest. Democrats are not queuing up any new reconciliation bills, and Republicans are almost certainly going to control the House anyway. But there is a world of difference between a 50-50 Senate and 51-49 GOP control when it comes to confirmations.”

“If Democrats retain control of the Senate then the judiciary will continue to tilt right on balance, but it will drift back toward the center thanks to Biden’s appointments to lower courts. If Republicans secure the majority, no new judges will get confirmed. This will overburden the courts as vacancies pile up, and we’ll see Democratic judges try to hold on despite age or illness reducing their effectiveness. Eventually, a new Republican administration will fill the vacancies and the balance of judicial power will shift further right.”