Amy Walter offers three possible scenarios for tonight’s midterm election results.
1. The Classic “Tsunami” Election: “We can put the 1994/2006/2010 midterms into this category. In this scenario, the bottom drops out for the party in the White House. Not only do the closest races tip to Republicans, but the GOP picks up seats in unexpected places.”
2. A “Wavey” Election: “The closest historical example would be the 2018 midterms. In this scenario, turnout is roughly even to slightly better for Republicans. Independent voters, however, break decisively for Republicans (say by 10-12 points). The closest races break for Republicans, but there are fewer ‘surprise’ pick-ups.”
3. A Red Ripple: “We don’t have an analog in recent years for this type of midterm election. In this scenario, Democratic and Republican turnout is basically equal — with both sides able to juice their base. Instead of breaking decisively for Republicans, independent voters give Republicans a small advantage.”
