Handicapping the Race for Control of the House

Cook Political Report: “More than 48 hours since polls closed, Republicans, maintain a clear edge in the race for 218 seats and House control — but it’s still not assured, and even if they do flip the chamber, it could be by a razor-thin margin. According to our 2022 House vote tracker, Republicans have captured 211 seats and Democrats have secured 200 seats. There are 24 seats where no network has ‘called’ a winner that remain uncertain.”

“Of the 24 unresolved races, we see Democrats as the favorites in ten, Republicans as the favorites in eight and six too close to call. That means Democrats would need to sweep the ‘no favorite’ races and nab at least one of the Republican-favored races to hold the majority — a tall order. If the unclear races were to break evenly, Republicans would win a 222-213 edge, a mirror image of Democrats’ current margin in the House.”

Inside Elections: “The fight for the House is emerging as the biggest surprise of the cycle. Republicans are unlikely to reach our range of a gain of 13-30 seats, if they win the majority at all.”