Candidates Mattered More This Cycle

Cook Political Report: “For decades, House races have become more parliamentary, with individual candidate quality and ideological fit taking a backseat to party labels and the prevailing national winds. In 2020, there were just 16 seats that split their tickets between president and House, a faint shadow of the 83 in 2008.”

“But this cycle rolled back the clock: candidates and campaigns mattered, a lot. Back in September, we created an ideological scorecard to classify GOP House nominees as either ‘traditional,’ more governing-oriented Republicans or more confrontational Trump enthusiasts/endorsees and those would fit in with the hard-line Freedom Caucus. In the end, independent voters proved open to the first group. But, ‘MAGA’ true believers badly bombed.”