The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Senate races are increasingly converging with presidential partisanship, to the point where the huge overperformances that were so common a decade or two ago have become much less common.”

“Since 2000, the number of senators who have run more than 10 points ahead of their party’s presidential nominee has decreased sharply.”

“This trend helps explain why we currently rate Democratic-held West Virginia as Leans Republican and started off Montana and Ohio as Toss-ups.”