If Trump Doesn’t Show Up for the First Debate

Seth Masket: “Typically, candidates go after the front-runner, but we know that most of the field is pretty shy about attacking Trump. Instead, they’ll likely focus on attacking the front-runner in the race to be Trump’s alternative if the legal system takes him out of contention. Which means that a lot of them are going after DeSantis. That could be a rough night for DeSantis. On the other hand, if he comes off deftly parrying attacks and exceeding the fairly low expectations for his stage performances, it could help his flagging campaign.”

“This will be way more media attention than any of these candidates has received so far. Yes, a debate audience is kind of a nerdy one, but there will be moments of drama and excitement and those will be repeated on TV news and shared on social media so that people who aren’t well attuned to the contest so far will gain some exposure to these candidates.”

“And the great thing about debates is that you can have moments, whether scripted or unscripted, that elevate obscure candidates and affect the contest.”