Political Wire

SubscribeSign in
  • Front Page
  • Trending
  • Polling
  • Trial Balloon
  • Books
  • Membership
    • Members FAQ
    • Exclusive Analysis
    • My Favorites
  • Sign In
Theme
Text size

Sonia Sotomayor Should Retire

March 5, 2024 · 12:32 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Josh Barro: “Sonia Sotomayor will turn 70 this June. If she retires this year, Biden will nominate a young and reliably liberal judge to replace her. Republicans do not control the Senate floor and cannot force the seat to be held open like they did when Scalia died. Confirmation of the new justice will be a slam dunk, and liberals will have successfully shored up one of their seats on the court — playing the kind of defense that is smart and prudent when your only hope of controlling the court again relies on both the timing of the deaths or retirements of conservative judges, plus not losing your grip on the three seats you already hold.”

“But if Sotomayor does not retire this year, we don’t know when she will next be able to retire with a likely liberal replacement. It’s possible that Democrats will retain the presidency and the Senate at this year’s elections, in which case the insurance created by a Sotomayor retirement won’t have been necessary.”

“But if Democrats lose the presidency or the Senate this fall (or both) she’ll need to stay on the court until the party once again controls both. That could be just a few years, or it could be a while — for example, Democrats have previously had to wait 14 years from 1995 to 2009, and 12 years from 1981 to 1993.”

Jonathan Last: “I suspect that one of Mitch McConnell’s legacies is that so long as Republicans control the Senate they will not confirm any Supreme Court nominees made by a Democratic president.”

Judiciary

← PreviousGOP Megadonors Finance Campaigns Against Hard-RightNext →Michelle Obama Isn’t Running

Keep reading

Front page →

Political Wire is reader-supported. Join for ad-free reading, member posts and new features →

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

More about Taegan Goddard →

?Political Trivia

  • The Way It Was
    Eight moments in political history. Put them on a timeline.
    Play →
  • Yea or Nay?
    Five senators. Three bills. Can you guess how they all voted?
    Play →
  • Split Decision
    Nine Justices. One case. How did they rule?
    Play →
  • Pollster
    Do you have your finger on the pulse of America?
    Play →
  • Daily Trivia
    Four questions a day.
    Play →

A new game every day.

Your Account

Members

For the full experience, sign in.

Become a Member

Read everything on Political Wire. No ads, Talking Points analysis, Trial Balloon podcast, new features and more.

  • Join Political Wire
  • Gift a Membership

Members Only

  • Trump Digs In
  • Republicans Had Nothing
  • Weekly News Quiz
  • A Pause in the Redistricting War?
  • A Remarkable Milestone in American Politics
  • Two Senate Races Remain

More members only posts →

Electoral Map Electoral Vote Map

222Democrat 97Toss-up 219Republican
270

Make your own map →

The starting map is built from how each state has voted compared with the country as a whole, not from how a state voted on its own. The last two presidential elections, with 2024 counting more than 2020. Then we…

Updated Nov. 4, 2026

?Political Trivia

  • The Way It Was →
  • Yea or Nay? →
  • Split Decision →
  • Pollster →
  • Daily Trivia →

Copyright © 2026 · Goddard Media LLC

Political Wire® is a registered trademark of Goddard Media LLC

Also from Goddard Media: Political Dictionary · Political Job Hunt · Electoral Vote Map

Privacy PolicyCorrections PolicyContact