Even a Felony Conviction Likely Won’t Upend This Race

Charlie Cook: “First, general elections today are driven much more by partisanship than anything else…”

“Second, more specific to this Biden-Trump race is the fact that both Trump and Biden have 100 percent name recognition and are as well defined in the minds of voters as they can be. In other circumstances, a lesser-known but still adequately funded candidate might have some upside as more voters become familiar with them. That is not the case here.”

“Third, and specifically applicable to this presumptive GOP presidential nominee, at least since the October 2016 release of the infamous Access Hollywood tape, few people have mistaken Trump for an Eagle Scout…”

“That leads to a fourth reason: Many nominal Republicans or GOP-leaning independents with conservative sympathies who might be tempted to vote against Trump on personal or behavioral grounds may also be hesitant to support Biden thanks to what they perceive as his aggressively progressive agenda and priorities… Many high-profile business leaders were known to be uncomfortable with Trump, but in recent weeks, some have moved in his direction and even endorsed him.”