Polls Have Never Shown a Closer Race

Nate Cohn: “In today’s polarized era, it’s hard to be surprised by polls showing a close race. But the polls today aren’t just close. In the era of modern polling, there’s never been an election when the final polls showed the race as close as it is today — not in 2000, 2004 or 2012, let alone 2016 or 2020.”

“If you squint, Ms. Harris might have an ever-so-slight edge. She leads by a few points in Michigan and Wisconsin, two states that would put her on the cusp of winning the presidency. From there, she could go over the top by winning any one of Pennsylvania, Georgia or North Carolina, where the race is essentially even.”

Axios: “In the 15 presidential elections since 1964, a candidate has led by more than five points in the national polling average for at least three weeks, according to CNN data analyst Harry Enten.”

“In 2024, that hasn’t been the case for a single day. The race is extraordinarily close — and will come down to tens of thousands of votes in just seven battleground states.”