New Republic: “In many ways, the polling debate of 2024 comes down to this dilemma. On the one hand, pollsters undercounted Donald Trump’s vote in 2016 and 2020. On the other, in 2022, some of the averages, fed by GOP data, inspired certain observers to discern the infamous red wave that never materialized. So the question now is: Will 2024 be more like 2016 and 2020, presidential elections in which there was a hidden Trump vote, or will it be more like 2022, a midterm campaign but the first post-Dobbs election when at least some observers missed the Democratic vote that turned out in no small part in response to the Supreme Court taking away the right to an abortion?”
“The 2022 cycle also arguably saw a new phenomenon really come to the fore: the rise of openly right-leaning pollsters that consistently showed better results for Republican candidates. Now, these questions have once again arisen: Should these pollsters be included in aggregators’ averages or not?”
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