Seven Weeks

Seth Masket picks the biggest political story of the year:

“Democrats: In the seven weeks between the Trump/Biden presidential debate and the Democratic National Convention, the Democrats pushed their scandal-free, well-accomplished incumbent president off the ticket because they thought he would lose. That’s an amount of party power we don’t often see in the U.S. Yet it was not completely without precedent — similar things happened when Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson declined to run for reelection in 1952 and 1968, respectively. In all three cases, the exact same thing happened: a replacement candidate almost certainly did better than the incumbent would have (possibly saving some congressional seats in the process) but still lost.”

“Republicans: In the seven weeks between Trump’s felony criminal conviction in a Manhattan courtroom and the Republican National Convention, the Republicans absolutely did not push their expected nominee off the ticket, instead doubling down in their support for him. This despite polling suggesting that some independents were moving away from Trump as a result of the conviction and they could lose the presidential race as a result. It nicely depicted the two very different attitudes across the parties about just what an electable candidate looks like and how important that trait is.”