Democratic Turnout Made the Difference in Wisconsin

Split Ticket: “Democrats swelled with confidence after their victory in the State Supreme Court race in Trump-won Wisconsin. It seemed that public opinion swung sharply against Donald Trump and the GOP despite Elon Musk’s eight-figure investment in the state. But the full story is not so simple.”

“Our pre-election modeling and preview pointed to an obvious turnout advantage that Democrats enjoyed, flagging it as a sign they could win big on April 1st. This is because the higher-propensity voters who vote in off-cycle elections tend to lean left of the low-propensity voters who only show up in presidential years. The election results validate that theory, showing how an overwhelmingly blue electorate left Wisconsin Republicans in the dust.”

“Our estimate is that the voters who voted in the 2025 Supreme Court election backed Kamala Harris by 7 points in 2024. In other words, roughly 70% of Susan Crawford’s win margin was attributable to changes in who was voting, rather than changes in how people voted.”