Trump Is Vulnerable on Immigration

Jonathan Chait: “Right now, the public supports Trump’s immigration stance because it’s reacting to the extraordinary surge in migration, led by huge numbers of unprocessed asylum seekers, under the Biden administration. But when Joe Biden took office, after four years of draconian Trump policies and rhetoric—above all the cruel spectacle of family separation—the public was in a far more forgiving mood toward immigrants. This reflects a dynamic called ‘thermostatic public opinion,’ in which people tend to move in the opposite direction of where the president is pushing policy.”

“If immigration is still the best issue for the Republican candidate in, say, summer 2028, then Democrats would be wise to let the issue drop. At the moment, however, time remains for thermostatic opinion to swing against Trump, and Democrats can help push it in that direction by highlighting the unpopular aspects of his agenda.”