A Way Too Early 2028 Election Model

Patrick Ruffini has released a “way too early” model forecasting the strength of possible 2028 Democratic presidential candidates.

The first iteration has Gavin Newsom ahead in a seven candidate field with a 29.7% chance of winning across 10,000 simulations. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez comes in second place with an 19.5% chance, followed by Pete Buttigieg at 13.4%, Josh Shapiro at 12.2%, Gretchen Whitmer at 11.3%, Cory Booker at 9.0%, and Andy Beshear at 5.1%.