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History Points to Huge Losses for Republicans Next Year

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Ed Kilgore: “The party of a sitting U.S. president almost always loses ground during the midterms. Since all 435 U.S. House seats are up every two years, we tend to assess midterms by how each party performs in House races. And dating back to FDR’s second term, the president’s party has lost House seats in 20 of 22 midterm elections.”

“Whether Donald Trump can break this trend is the crucial question heading into 2026. The current math is not in the GOP’s favor; the party will start the year with no more than a two-seat House majority and Trump’s gerrymandering push is floundering. The stakes are particularly high because Trump won’t be able to enact much of his audacious second-term agenda if Republicans lose their governing trifecta in Washington.”

“So what are the odds that Republicans can defy history in 2026?”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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