Ed Kilgore: “The party of a sitting U.S. president almost always loses ground during the midterms. Since all 435 U.S. House seats are up every two years, we tend to assess midterms by how each party performs in House races. And dating back to FDR’s second term, the president’s party has lost House seats in 20 of 22 midterm elections.”
“Whether Donald Trump can break this trend is the crucial question heading into 2026. The current math is not in the GOP’s favor; the party will start the year with no more than a two-seat House majority and Trump’s gerrymandering push is floundering. The stakes are particularly high because Trump won’t be able to enact much of his audacious second-term agenda if Republicans lose their governing trifecta in Washington.”
“So what are the odds that Republicans can defy history in 2026?”
Save to Favorites