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Donald Trump and the 40% Rule

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Jonathan Bernstein: “Now I’m going to reprise my most speculative and unscientific theory that I’ve ever blogged about: The 40% rule. Basically, the (speculative! unscientific!) idea is that falling below 40% is the point where the president’s party starts really understanding how unpopular the president really is, and starts acting with that in mind…”

“Once the approval numbers fall under 40%… it gets increasingly difficult to believe the president is actually popular. And that’s when party politicians beyond those in the toughest seats start defecting, and it gets harder and harder for the president to persuade those politicians on anything.”

FiftyPlusOne has Trump’s approval at 39.1% today.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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