Donald Trump and the 40% Rule

Jonathan Bernstein: “Now I’m going to reprise my most speculative and unscientific theory that I’ve ever blogged about: The 40% rule. Basically, the (speculative! unscientific!) idea is that falling below 40% is the point where the president’s party starts really understanding how unpopular the president really is, and starts acting with that in mind…”

“Once the approval numbers fall under 40%… it gets increasingly difficult to believe the president is actually popular. And that’s when party politicians beyond those in the toughest seats start defecting, and it gets harder and harder for the president to persuade those politicians on anything.”

FiftyPlusOne has Trump’s approval at 39.1% today.