EuroIntelligence: “Donald Trump has also maneuvered himself into a position where his stated war goal – regime change without a ground invasion – is no longer realistic. Right now, he has three choices: First, he sticks to the four-to-five week timetable, declares victory, and gets out. The Strait of Hormuz would at this point not be sufficiently secured. Second, he could continue the current campaign until the strait is open and he is assured that it will stay open. There would be no regime change in Iran, but he would have regained control over the strait of Hormuz. Third, he concludes that for as long as the existing Iranian regime is in power, the strait is not safe. To get the job done, he will need to send in ground troops.”
“Scenario one is just awful. We think he is in scenario two. So do the markets. But we are not sure that this scenario is realistic. It is clearly the Iranian strategy to leverage the one and only trump card they have – a global economic crisis resulting from the closure of the strait.”
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