Janan Ganesh looks at the origins of the “madman theory” of diplomacy during the Nixon administration and notes “there are reasons to think the ploy will be even less successful now than it was then.”
“For one thing, Nixon made his threats through private channels. If he decided to back down from them, he would not lose face in front of the entire world. In contrast, Trump’s threats to erase a civilization could scarcely be more public. The pressure to make good on them at some point is correspondingly higher. It might intensify after his agreement to a conditional ceasefire with Iran on Taco Tuesday — sorry, April 7. This is why games of bluff are better played behind closed doors.”
“Another difference is that mid-20th century Vietnam was not central to the world economy. Early-21st century Iran unmistakably is.”
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