Charlie Cook: “Few would seriously argue that this won’t be a bad year for Republicans. The question is, how bad will it be? My theory is that very few Republicans running in blue, Democratic-tilting states and districts are likely to win. In purple, swing states and districts, where Trump is extremely unpopular, the electoral mortality rate for GOP candidates will be extremely high, with few survivors.”
“But in most red, Republican-tilting states and districts, the loss rate for GOP candidates might be pretty low. Sure, a very low Republican turnout, which I think is likely, will cost some Republican candidates elections in very light red states, but past a certain point, it will take Republicans actually defecting and voting Democratic, which as we’ve already determined, does not happen much anymore.”
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