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Democrats Are Still Favored to Take the House

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Decision Desk HQ: “Republicans have improved their baseline seat expectations in the 2026 House race thanks to recent redistricting developments. This has somewhat improved their chances of retaining control of the House.”

“However, House Democrats remained favored due to a very positive national environment that makes it likely that 2026 will see a notable shift to the left from the 2024 presidential race.”

“Using the generic ballot, the 2024 presidential vote by district, and the 2024 House vote by district, we can see how potential swings still suggest that Democrats have an edge in the battle for control of the House.”

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About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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