Decision Desk HQ: “Republicans have improved their baseline seat expectations in the 2026 House race thanks to recent redistricting developments. This has somewhat improved their chances of retaining control of the House.”
“However, House Democrats remained favored due to a very positive national environment that makes it likely that 2026 will see a notable shift to the left from the 2024 presidential race.”
“Using the generic ballot, the 2024 presidential vote by district, and the 2024 House vote by district, we can see how potential swings still suggest that Democrats have an edge in the battle for control of the House.”
