Playbook: “Now that the world has gotten a closer look at what Iran demanded, it’s clear why he’s so pessimistic. Some of Iran’s top lines will be difficult at best, and nonstarters at worst, for the U.S. to swallow. State media said Iran wants the U.S. to pay reparations for the war and allow Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz — neither of which would be acceptable in Washington — along with the lifting of sanctions.”
“The U.S., in turn, wants Iran to agree to major new limits on its nuclear program, which Iranian leaders, feeling emboldened by how the war has gone, seem nowhere near accepting…”
“The upshot is that even though a ceasefire remains in place, the path forward looks murky for Trump to get the Strait of Hormuz reopened, let alone achieve the war’s broader aims of setting back Iran’s nuclear program or regime change. Will he escalate militarily, give ground to Iran or prolong a status quo, in which gas prices rise and broader economic tumult grows?”
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