This Could Be the Least Competitive Election on Record

G. Elliot Morris: “In 1976, the U.S. House of Representatives had 101 ‘structurally competitive’ congressional districts. By ‘structurally competitive,’ I mean seats that either party had a reasonable chance of winning in an electoral cycle that was perfectly tied nationally — those seats where the Democratic Party’s vote margin was within 5 points of the vote margin for the Demoratic nominee for president in the most recent election.”

“Last November, in contrast, the number of competitive seats was just 42. Under the new partisan gerrymanders that Republicans and Democrats (but mostly Republicans) have passed for the 2026 midterms, the number falls to a new all-time-low of 33.”

“That’s right: Just 33 out of 435 — less than 8% — of districts were decided by less than 5 points, in terms of partisan lean, last year.”