Why Donald Trump’s Coalition Is Disintegrating

The Economist: “To understand why Mr Trump’s coalition is falling apart, recall how he won election to a second term in 2024. Covid-era spending and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed inflation to 9% in 2022, the highest rate in decades.”

“For a population accustomed to predictable prices, this was a profound shock. Even as the economy grew and inflation fell in 2024, Americans rated prices as their top concern. Accepting the Republican nomination in July of that year, Mr Trump promised that under his leadership ‘inflation will vanish completely.’ Democrats, meanwhile, struggled to persuade voters they could be trusted. The 81-year-old incumbent, Joe Biden, did not appear up to the job. A last-minute switch to Ms Harris, Mr Biden’s vice-president who had flailed in a presidential primary just four years before, was not enough to save the party.”

“Mr Trump’s victory over Ms Harris, with a 1.5-percentage-point margin, rested on a fragile coalition of voters dissatisfied with Democratic leadership.”