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Be Wary of Predictions Three Years In Advance

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Jonathan Bernstein: “It’s true that the available Senate seats in 2024 will be extremely challenging for Democrats. There are no obvious pick-ups — no states that President Joe Biden won that are currently represented by a Republican — and several Democratic seats that will likely be very difficult to defend. One, Senator Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia, seems almost certain to flip to Republicans. If that happens, and Democrats need even one net seat to win a Senate majority, they would have to hold several other tough seats while finding two or more unlikely wins.”

“So yes, betting more than three years in advance, I wouldn’t take even odds that Democrats would win a new majority in 2024. But it’s one thing to assess the odds; it’s another to be too confident about the future. It’s not hard to come up with a few ways Democrats could win a seat or two.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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