“The war in Iran will likely end soon after November’s mid-term elections, President Donald Trump said Saturday, and predicted that energy prices would fall sharply once that happens,” CNBC reports.
Said Trump: “I think very soon, I think it’ll be right after the mid-terms, actually. I would say shortly, and oil will come tumbling down when that happens.”
Alexandra Petri: “If only the GOP midterm convention succeeds in its aim of electing Donald Trump president, things will get a lot better in this country. Isn’t he already president? Hush! At the Unprecedented (But Very President-ed) Republican Midterm Convention, we reject such trivial objections! ‘I know many of you are still struggling thanks to Joe Biden and the Democrats,’ said Richard Hudson, the National Republican Committee chair.”
“You have your orders: Imagine that Donald Trump is on the ballot, because if he were, the economy would get a lot better than it is under whoever is president right now—I have to assume Biden? But possibly, based on sheer volume of mentions, Abdul El-Sayed? Whoever it is, the guy is doing just terribly.”
“Donald Trump has already fixed everything, but also, we need him to fix everything. He is the greatest president in our lifetime, if we can ever manage to elect him.”
“I’m cautiously optimistic. I won’t predict, you know, how many seats are going to be in either chamber come November. But, I do think there is a path for us to retain both majorities and defy history, for sure.”
— White House political adviser James Blair, quoted by NBC News.
“Deep in Arctic waters near the remote Svalbard archipelago this spring, NATO allies caught Russian subs training to unleash a secret weapon designed to disable critical undersea cables without leaving any fingerprints,” Reuters reports.
“The world’s most valuable energy corridors are pinching shut,” the New York Times reports.
“On Friday, Houthi militants backed by Iran expanded their control of the Red Sea, threatening a critical route for Persian Gulf crude. That left the region with few alternatives, since shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — once the world’s primary oil transit point — remains significantly constrained and far below what it was before the war.”
“And oil exports from Saudi Arabia, long the most important producer in the Middle East, plunged last month to their lowest point in at least 13 years.”
Wall Street Journal: “A sprawling military alliance that reaches from the Caribbean across the Andes to the Pacific is taking shape a year after the Trump administration began bombing alleged drug-smuggling boats in the region. The tactics are sometimes unapologetically and intentionally brutal, like President Trump’s drug-boat campaign, designed to send a message that narcotics traffickers now face local forces backed by U.S. firepower.”
“The emerging coalition is a bloc of largely right-wing governments across the region that could receive U.S. intelligence, equipment and surveillance technology. Sometimes they work jointly with American troops. Regional security forces are bombing jungle encampments, capturing drug kingpins and killing drug couriers with U.S. help, American officials said.”
A new Saint Louis University/YouGov poll in Missouri finds President Donald Trump’s approval at 47%, while 52% disapprove — the first time his net approval has been negative in his nearly six years as president.
“A handful of U.S. states with some of the most competitive congressional races in the country are caught in the crosshairs of President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney,” the Washington Post reports.
“While the average American may not feel the tariffs — all told, they affect just 6 percent of $715 billion in annual cross-border trade — key industries in Maine, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio and Pennsylvania are likely to feel the added costs.”
NPR: These Michigan swing voters are bracing for higher prices from trade war with Canada.
“Republicans breathed a sigh of relief that the GOP midterm convention didn’t go poorly. But many aren’t convinced it will help in November,” Politico reports.
”On flights out of Dallas Friday morning, Republicans were grateful that the novel concept of a two-day midterm convention went smoothly. But they had lingering questions about its impact in the upcoming midterms and even some worries that President Donald Trump’s request that voters picture him on the ballot will hurt swing district Republicans who need Democratic or independent votes.”
MS NOW: It was Trump’s show at the GOP convention. And it will be Trump’s midterms in November.
“America is shedding its status as the default choice for foreign governments to park money, buy weapons and send students,” Axios reports.
“Even modest shifts away from the U.S. could chip away at advantages that have helped sustain American economic and geopolitical power for decades.”
”The Netherlands moved 86 tons of gold out of the U.S. and Canada last week, citing the move as a hedge against ‘extreme systemic risks.’ France already moved all of its gold out of New York, while Germany debated doing the same.”
“Norway’s sovereign wealth fund — the world’s largest — announced plans to reduce its holdings of U.S. government bonds amid turbulence in the Treasury market.”
“President Trump said Saturday he would love to see a unified Ireland as he kicked off a visit to the country, where he will meet with leaders and attend a major golf tournament at one of his courses,” CBS News reports.
“During a meeting with Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin in Dublin, Mr. Trump said the unification of the Republic of Ireland with Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, ‘may as well happen now.'”
NPR: Trump heads to Ireland to watch some golf at his club and conduct some diplomacy.
New York Times: “Although this year’s Democratic primary season brought a surge of left-wing momentum, and a handful of victories by democratic socialists running for Congress in Colorado, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania and Florida, no credible midterm candidate identifies as a communist. And there is little momentum behind any communist movement in U.S. politics at the federal level.”
“Still, for months now, Mr. Trump and Republicans, staring down a daunting political environment and the potential loss of one or both houses of Congress, have been trying to cast Democrats as communists, deploying a charge that has little overlap with Democrats’ actual platforms.”
Aaron Blake: “Republicans’ hopes of holding their Senate majority might hinge on Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton more than anyone else.”
“And President Donald Trump seemingly can’t stop insulting him.”
“Trump has repeatedly made the case for Paxton — whom he endorsed over the safer candidate, incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn — in recent days. And over and over, he’s thickly layered it in insults directed at the way Paxton looks, dresses and speaks. Trump then assures any listeners that Paxton, despite how he presents, is actually a fantastic attorney general.”
“It’s both bizarre and entertaining, in a vintage Trump way — before American politics seemed to get heavier under the weight of controversial wars, more severe partisanship and increasing political violence.”
NBC News: Ken Paxton dodges confrontation while slamming James Talarico as weak.
New York Times: “Almost 20 months into Mr. Trump’s second term, his long-running media clashes have grown into a sweeping campaign to control speech in America that stands out for applying so many levers, so fast, all at once.”
“Driven by personal pique, fury over leaks and a determination to shape the political narrative to his advantage, Mr. Trump is deploying the might of the federal government and filing personal lawsuits — targeting not just journalists and liberal critics, but also comedians and talk show hosts, and the corporate entities behind them.”
“With less than two months until the midterm elections, President Trump commenced a final push this week to preserve his Republican majority in Congress, arguing that the United States under GOP control had brought prices ‘way, way down,'” the New York Times reports.
“But for many families and businesses, the economy appeared to be on far shakier footing by Friday. Fuel prices soared, mortgage costs climbed and inflation registered uncomfortably high, testing the public’s patience with Mr. Trump’s frequent assurances that the country is on the right track.”
“The contrast underscored the political and economic stakes for Mr. Trump, who may soon face the wrath of an electorate long spurned by promises in Washington to lower the cost of living.”
“The Senate is set to return Monday after a five-week recess, and it is still unclear if GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell will end his three-month absence from the Capitol due to health issues,” CNN reports.
“A federal judge on Friday appeared poised to dismiss a lawsuit against President Trump’s proposed library in Miami, citing presidential immunity in blocking the fact-finding pretrial process that is generally required,” the New York Times reports.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.