“Democrats are increasingly planning to vote in person in November’s midterm elections amid President Trump’s attacks on mail-in voting, according to a new NBC News poll,” Axios reports.
“Democrats have relied heavily on mail voting in recent elections, but the poll points to a shift toward casting ballots early in person.”
“Denmark said on Saturday that its sovereignty over Greenland would not be compromised by a deal taking shape with the Trump administration that would allow a significant expansion of the U.S. military presence on the Arctic island,” Reuters reports.
“The United States, Denmark and Greenland said on Friday they had reached an agreement for the U.S. to expand its military footprint in the self-governed Danish territory, while preventing U.S. adversaries from establishing bases there.”
If you haven’t played Yea or Nay yet, today’s edition is a good one.
New York Post: “In a call with Fox News on Sunday, Trump laid out three possible paths for Iran: they make a deal with the U.S. or Trump will choose between ‘letting them rot economically,’ or wiping Iran out entirely.”
Said Trump: “My question is, if and when do I blow the entire nation up? They better behave.”
“The U.S. State Department warned Americans to reconsider traveling to the Middle East, adding that the Iran war could quickly worsen, as Tehran maintained a defiant stance over the Strait of Hormuz,” CNBC reports.
“Barely six weeks out from the midterm elections, housing costs that many Americans have long said are too high are looking even more out of reach,” Bloomberg reports.
“The latest blow for consumers came Thursday, when Freddie Mac reported that rates for 30-year mortgages climbed to 6.95%, the highest since January 2025, when President Donald Trump returned to office. That report emerged after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years, crushing any hopes that borrowing costs will come down soon.”
A new NBC News poll finds President Donald Trump’s approval at 41%, while 55% disapprove.
The same poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 50% to 45%.
Nate Silver: “The streak of excellent polls for Democrats continues. The latest New York Times/Siena poll shows the generic ballot at D +8, and this week’s YouGov/Economist wave has it at D +12 among likely voters.”
“As a result, Democrats’ chances of retaking the Senate are up to 65 percent in our Deluxe forecast. That’s the highest they’ve been this cycle.”
“President Trump said Sunday morning his proposed ‘triumphal arch’ in Washington will become a dual-use facility housing snipers, drones and ammunition storage,” Axios reports.
“The president is now framing construction of the arch as a national security issue — much like he did with the East Wing ballroom/military complex at the White House.”
“Ukraine launched what Moscow’s mayor called the biggest drone attack yet on the Russian capital on Sunday, as Russians voted on the final day of a parliamentary election that President Vladimir Putin has cast as a test of support for the war in Ukraine,” Reuters reports.
“When President Donald Trump first ran for office, he called out China as a menace to the U.S. economy, saying it had gutted America’s factories and eroded the middle class,” the Associated Press reports.
“That tough talk helped Trump get to the White House a decade ago, but since then, he increasingly speaks in glowing terms about Chinese President Xi Jinping, the geopolitical rival Trump will fete on Thursday with a state dinner.”
Said Trump: “He’s a great gentleman; we get along great. We have a very good trading relationship and, you know, they’re a competitor and all of that, but we have a very good relationship with President Xi.”
“On issue after issue, the Republican president has given Xi a pass.”
Ron Brownstein: “It’s become an article of faith for trade hardliners in both parties that a protectionist agenda is a guaranteed pathway to building support among working-class voters. But now that President Donald Trump is testing that theory in practice, it is largely flopping on the campaign trail.”
“Trump has pursued the most confrontational trade agenda of any president since at least William McKinley at the end of the 19th century, and by the estimation of some historians, even Thomas Jefferson around its beginning.”
“But even in heavily blue-collar states and House districts that were long believed to be the most receptive to a protectionist agenda, Democrats almost uniformly have been comfortable this year running against the Trump tariffs, while Republicans have struggled to defend them. Even Democrats who are deeply skeptical of free trade agreements — like Ohio Senate candidate Sherrod Brown and Brian Poindexter, the ironworker running against Rep. Max Miller for an Ohio House seat — have been unreserved in condemning the Trump tariffs. Polls by CNN and other media organizations consistently show that far more Americans believe the tariffs have hurt rather than helped their financial bottom line — and that consensus extends even to working-class white voters without a four-year college degree.”
Wired: “The president has doubled down on data centers and AI. His base is running in the opposite direction.”
“President Donald Trump’s sprawling family business empire has become increasingly intertwined with the boom in artificial intelligence, at the same time that he has resisted calls to slow the development of the technology,” the Washington Post reports.
”Unlike his recent predecessors, Trump has not placed his assets in a blind trust, and he has continued to buy and sell stocks while in office.”
Mediaite: Obama bashes Trump for not pushing “serious regulatory framework” on AI.
Aaron Blake: “While President Donald Trump’s personal behavior is often strange, his conduct over the last 12 days has been pretty remarkable — especially with the midterm election around the corner.”
“He’s offered voters what even some Republicans say amounts to a bribe. He’s threatened (jokingly?) to withhold disaster aid from a state if it doesn’t elect a GOP senator. Ahead of the 25th anniversary of 9/11, he told a dubious story about his proximity to Ground Zero. He’s baselessly suggested Democrats conspired to kill him. He’s threatened to halt all foreign trade. He’s holding the future of the Kennedy Center hostage if judges don’t allow him to put his name on it. And now he’s denying certain media outlets, including CNN, access to the White House.”
”One of the most underestimated reasons for the decline in Trump’s political fortunes is Americans’ loss of faith in his leadership capabilities.”
Nate Cohn: “There is no formal definition of a wave. The term mostly evokes the feeling of a sweeping victory, one in which a party wins all the usual battlegrounds while toppling some of the opposing party’s typically safe districts and longtime incumbents.”
“To get that ‘wave’ feeling on election night, two things need to happen.”
“Most obviously, a party needs to win big. If a party wins by, say, at least five percentage points in the national vote, that party will have an advantage in most of the usual battleground states and districts.”
“Less obviously, it matters how much better a party does than in the last election. A five-point victory may not feel like a wave if the same party won by four points in the prior election.”
CNN: “The GOP has controlled all statewide offices in Texas for almost two decades. But a mix of economic factors, the national backlash to immigration raids and the growth of artificial intelligence, and the GOP nominating baggage-laden candidates who could offend moderate voters make this fall perhaps the likeliest chance for Democrats to break one-party control of the nation’s second-largest state.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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