What Exactly Is a Wave Election?

Nate Cohn: “There is no formal definition of a wave. The term mostly evokes the feeling of a sweeping victory, one in which a party wins all the usual battlegrounds while toppling some of the opposing party’s typically safe districts and longtime incumbents.”

“To get that ‘wave’ feeling on election night, two things need to happen.”

“Most obviously, a party needs to win big. If a party wins by, say, at least five percentage points in the national vote, that party will have an advantage in most of the usual battleground states and districts.”

“Less obviously, it matters how much better a party does than in the last election. A five-point victory may not feel like a wave if the same party won by four points in the prior election.”