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Massive Primary Turnout Points to Huge Year for Democrats

September 22, 2026 at 10:34 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Downballot: “Throughout this year’s just-concluded primary season, there’s been one consistent storyline: Democratic primaries have seen much higher turnout than their Republican counterparts. But does this meaningfully indicate what we might expect in November?”

“It turns out the answer is very much yes.”

“In midterms over the past 80 years, there’s been a surprisingly tight relationship between voting behavior in a given cycle’s primaries and the House popular vote in the general election that follows. Based on that relationship, this year’s primary turnout suggests that Democrats would win the House vote by an enormous 13-point spread.”

Drug Cartels Are Making Alarming Drone Advances

September 22, 2026 at 10:30 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The rapidly accelerating use of drones among Latin American drug cartels will significantly complicate the Trump administration’s campaign to halt the flow of illicit narcotics into the United States and eliminate the criminal networks that produce and traffic them,” the Washington Post reports.

“Of chief concern, these people said, is the continued exploitation of individuals with recent battlefield experience in the Russia-Ukraine war, a conflict that has featured near-continuous evolution in drone tactics and technology.”

Another Bonus Quote of the Day

September 22, 2026 at 10:24 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Between a long skirt and a short skirt, I always prefer without skirt.”

— Italian far-right politician Roberto Vannacci, quoted by Bloomberg, when asked if he would advise his son to marry a “less conspicuous but more reliable, more serious” woman who might wear “slightly longer skirts.”

Democrats Open Up Big Lead on Generic Ballot

September 22, 2026 at 10:18 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new The Economist/YouGov poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 52% to 38%.

Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrats 52%
 
Republicans 38%
 
The Economist/YouGov poll · likely voters

Becerra Headed for Landslide in California

September 22, 2026 at 10:15 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new ABC 10News/Union-Tribune/SurveyUSA poll in California finds Xavier Becerra (D) leading Steve Hilton (R) in the governor’s race, 55% to 33%.

California Governor’s Race
Xavier Becerra (D) 55%
 
Steve Hilton (R) 33%
 
ABC 10News/Union-Tribune/SurveyUSA poll · likely voters

Delcy Rodríguez Cashes In On Bargain With Trump

September 22, 2026 at 8:45 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Venezuelan interim president Delcy Rodríguez has had to show deference to Washington in a way most leaders would find humiliating since taking office in January after U.S. forces captured her country’s leader,” the Financial Times reports.

“Washington controls the country’s oil revenues, which means she has had to ask a 32-year-old state department official’s permission to spend those funds. And she has allocated a fifth of Venezuela’s oil reserves to a private company part-owned by the Pentagon.”

“This week, Rodríguez will receive her reward, analysts say. On Tuesday, she will meet U.S. President Donald Trump in New York for the first sit-down between the two countries’ leaders since 2015.”

Semafor: Venezuela courts debt, energy and mining deals in New York.

El-Sayed Pulls Ahead in Michigan Senate Race

September 22, 2026 at 8:18 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Suffolk University poll in Michigan finds Abdul El-Sayed (D) leading Mike Rogers (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 40%.

Michigan Senate Race
Abdul El-Sayed (D) 47%
 
Mike Rogers (R) 40%
 
Suffolk University poll · ±4.4%

Turek Opens Lead in Iowa Senate Race

September 22, 2026 at 8:16 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Marist Poll poll in Iowa finds Josh Turek (D) leading Ashley Hinson (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 42%.

Iowa Senate Race
Josh Turek (D) 50%
 
Ashley Hinson (R) 42%
 
Marist Poll poll · registered voters · ±4.4%

Trump Is Checking Out of His Presidency

September 22, 2026 at 8:15 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Edward Luce: “To say that Trump has checked out of the business of governing is an understatement. It would also imply that he had previously checked in. Yet in his first year, Trump had a plan and executed a lot of it. This included the big beautiful bill of tax cuts, a trade war against the world, ICE deportation round-ups, Elon Musk’s assault on the administrative state and a government-wide DEI purge. The phrase ‘Trump’s war on.. (universities, science, law firms, fill in the blank)’ became a media cliché. Whatever you thought of his choice of targets, Trump had them in his sights.”

“In his second year, however, the president’s mind has increasingly been colonised by monuments to himself. Aside from ego, few can credit the depth of Trump’s obsession with these kitsch monstrosities.”

Trump Warns He’ll Be ‘Last Republican President’

September 22, 2026 at 8:07 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Donald Trump has changed his pitch to wary Republicans who are hesitant to undo a decades-old safeguard in the Senate: if they do nothing, he may be the last Republican president,” Fox News reports.

“Trump has long demanded that Republicans nuke the filibuster, which has blocked key parts of his agenda, to pass the SAVE America Act. He has warned that Democrats would eliminate the firewall themselves if they regain power, allowing them to push through their most partisan priorities.”

“Now, he’s warning that if Republicans don’t pull the trigger, Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico will become states and elect only Democrats to Congress, likely foiling the chances of a future Republican winning the White House.”

Control of Rare Earths Looms Over Trump-Xi Meeting

September 22, 2026 at 8:06 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“China’s restrictions on exports of crucial rare-earth metals and rare-earth magnets remain one of the most difficult unresolved issues as President Trump and Xi Jinping prepare to meet this week,” the New York Times reports.

“For months, manufacturers in the United States, Europe, Japan and India have complained about difficulties in obtaining enough rare-earth metals from China, which dominates global production. The materials are essential for making products ranging from cars and wind turbines to semiconductors, computer displays and military equipment.”

Wired: AI, tariffs, rare minerals: what to expect from Trump’s upcoming summit with Xi Jinping.

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

September 22, 2026 at 7:55 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The last message that Charlie Kirk gave to me before he joined his creator in heaven was, he said, that we have to dismantle and take on the radical left organizations in this country that are fomenting violence. And we are going to do that.”

— White House adviser Stephen Miller, quoted by the New York Times.

Japan Meets with Trump, Hoping to Get His Help On China

September 22, 2026 at 7:38 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“For almost a year, China has orchestrated a bruising campaign against Japan in retaliation for a comment by its prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, in defense of Taiwan,” the New York Times reports.

“When Ms. Takaichi meets with President Trump in New York City on Tuesday, those tensions are likely to be high on the agenda.”

“Ms. Takaichi, a longtime critic of Beijing, is expected to express her concern to Mr. Trump about China’s increasingly aggressive economic and security measures, according to two people familiar with her plans, including restrictions on the export of rare earth minerals. She will also emphasize her desire for a de-escalation with China.”

Trump World Eyes Ex-Soviet States for Business Deals

September 22, 2026 at 7:30 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Donald Trump and his circle are expanding their business interests in a region where his administration is seeking to deepen its own economic influence,” Bloomberg reports.

“Projects in the Caucasus and Central Asia tied to his family and associates span luxury real estate, critical minerals and transportation, from what would be the tallest tower in Georgia to a tungsten mine in Kazakhstan and a new trade route connecting Armenia and Azerbaijan.”

Americans and the Distrust Election

September 22, 2026 at 7:23 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Call it the distrust election,” the New York Times reports.

“For as much as Americans disagree these days, one common denominator runs through American life: a profound distrust of the institutions and industries that make the country run. Whether on data centers, chemicals in food, the Epstein files or the war in Iran, Americans across the political spectrum say they have the feeling that they are being lied to.”

Republicans Start Making Moves to Challenge JD Vance

September 22, 2026 at 7:09 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Vice President JD Vance is leading polls of the nascent 2028 GOP presidential primary field — but that has not deterred other Republicans from taking steps toward running months before the race kicks off,” the Washington Post reports.

”Other Republicans — including several sitting lawmakers — are weighing 2028 campaigns, even as the party fights to hold on to its House and Senate majorities in November’s midterm elections.”

Elon Musk Is Flying Under the Radar in Texas Races

September 22, 2026 at 7:08 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

NBC News: “Unlike in Wisconsin, Musk has so far stayed out of the spotlight in Texas, even though he lives in the state, has based his companies Tesla and SpaceX there, and employs about 20,000 people. He hasn’t announced plans for any in-person events, or teased — as he did in Wisconsin — that he’d be handing out $1 million checks to voters.”

“Privately, Republicans say they want Musk to keep his distance. In interviews, more than half a dozen Republican strategists involved in the Texas Senate race say they hope Musk follows his 2024 model of electoral involvement, which led to a Republican sweep of the White House and Congress. Then, Musk spent more than $250 million on Donald Trump and his party.”

“Republicans believe Democrats will attempt to turn Musk into a boogeyman if he takes on a higher-profile role in Texas or other battlegrounds.”

Talarico Just Ahead in Texas Senate Race

September 22, 2026 at 7:02 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Texas Southern University poll in Texas finds James Talarico (D) leading Ken Paxton (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 46%.

Texas Senate Race
James Talarico (D) 47%
 
Ken Paxton (R) 46%
 
Texas Southern University poll · likely voters · ±2.3%
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About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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