Massive Primary Turnout Points to Big Year for Democrats

The Downballot: “Throughout this year’s just-concluded primary season, there’s been one consistent storyline: Democratic primaries have seen much higher turnout than their Republican counterparts. But does this meaningfully indicate what we might expect in November?”

“It turns out the answer is very much yes.”

“In midterms over the past 80 years, there’s been a surprisingly tight relationship between voting behavior in a given cycle’s primaries and the House popular vote in the general election that follows. Based on that relationship, this year’s primary turnout suggests that Democrats would win the House vote by an enormous 13-point spread.”